A re-evaluation of my world cup favorites

Even though it has come a bit late in the day, I guess it would still be relevant to evaluate my list of teams that I had thought were favorites to lift the twenty-eleven edition of the world cup, even before the first ball of the tournament was bowled. And since by now, we are already two weeks into the mega-event, we do have an opportunity to examine the validity of my initial predictions against some actual performances of the teams featured in the list.

Out of the ten teams that are participating, I had picked three teams in order of their strength, and added another as a dark horse on the basis of its sheer talent at the fourth position. Here are my initial choices, the reason behind, the till date performance and the revised ranking if any:



The Favorite

1. India: This home team was my clear favorite to lift the trophy, primarily due to the batting heavy weights it boasts of in its lineup. Any team which opens with the best ODI batsman of all times (Sachin Tendulkar) and the most destructive batter of his era (Virender Sehwag), follows them up with two top ten ICC ranked batsmen (Gautam Gambhir and Virat Kohli), then back them up again with two hardest strikers and match winners (Yuvraj Singh & Mahendra Dhoni) and is still left with a fearsome hitter of the cricket ball to come in next (Yusuf Pathan) has to be up there as the team to beat. The fact that all the above guys are in excellent form barring Yuvraj (even Yuvi has shown some early signs of getting back into touch), presents a strong case in their favor. They also have a crafty seam bowler in Zaheer Khan, an experienced off spinner in Harbhajan and some very useful part timers who can do the job in the sub-continent conditions. Hence despite the fact that they lost a recent series in South Africa, I thought, they had to be the favorites here under more familiar placid home tracks.

By now, they have played two matches, and having won one and tied one have already accumulated three points. With two relatively easier games in hand against Netherland and Ireland, their quarterfinal berth should be a near certainty. The only worrying factor is that their bowlers have looked clueless in both the matches so far. While Bangladesh managed to score more than 280 against them, England threatened to hand them with their first defeat in the cup as they weren’t able to defend a mammoth total of 339 in Bangalore. They have to do some serious re-thinking there before any further damage is done.

Hence, in my ranking system, even though they still appear there as the number one favorite, which is again due to their batting prowess and knowledge of the conditions, there is certainly some amount of doubt that has crept in at this point. What if on a knock out match, the batsmen don’t manage to score 300 plus? Still I am willing to give them the benefit of doubt at this stage.



The Lions

2. Srilanka: They are always a force to reckon with, in the slow and low sub-continent tracks and hence despite the fact that they have a relatively weaker middle order, I had ranked them as the second most likely side to lift the cup. To support my reasoning, I have to point out at a decent opening pair in Dilshan and Tharanga, followed by the classy duo of Mahela and Sangakkara and then a smart choice in Samaraweera at number five to lend some stability in the middle order. With the versatile Angelo Mathews and the hard hitting Tisara Perera to follow, they seem to have one of the most balanced sides in the tournament. In Malinga, they have a dangerous wicket taking fast bowler and in Muralidharan, they have that world cup winning experience, who could guide spinners like Herath and Mendis when the situation so demands. How I wish they had picked Jayasuria at least in their 16 member squad, in place of Chamara Silva or Kapugedara! A slightly out of form forty-odd year old Jayasuria is still ten times better than either of the above. The Lankan selectors may have missed a trick here.

Notwithstanding that, and their loss to Pakistan in their group match, the Lions are still my choice as the second most favorite even now. They have already secured five points and with two games against the Kiwis and Zimbabwe, they would probably back themselves to qualify for the quarter finals as one of the top two teams from their group. 

The defending champions

3. Australia: The Aussies, despite of their humiliating ashes defeat, have quickly bounced back with a six-one home series win against their traditional nemesis England and looked quite formidable ever since. The addition of the pace duo, Brett Lee and Shaun Tait, has added that extra spark to their bowling attack, and despite of missing Mike Hussey in the middle order, they are looking every bit the defending champions, if only marginally subdued. They have an invaluable player in Shane Watson, who coming at the top of the order, not only destroys bowling attacks, but also is adept at sneaking away those important wickets as an extremely handy seam bowler. While Mitch Johnson, as a first change bowler, doesn’t provide any respite for the opposition, Jason Krejza & Steve Smith look to form their other attacking option. Alongside the above six specialists, the world champions also have the option of bowling White, Clarke and David Hussey, and that undoubtedly ranks as the best bowling unit of the tournament.

Here again, my evaluation doesn’t change, and I still go with them as my third favorite to win the cup. I hear that they are in the process of getting a replacement for Doug Bollinger, and if they manage to get Mike Hussey, then, in all probability, I would place them ahead of the Lions as my second favorite beyond any doubt.



The unpredictables

4. Pakistan: Having selected my top three favorites to go all the way, I have the supremely talented but extremely unpredictable Pakistan team as my dark horse to lift the trophy. Coming into the tournament, they look a very flexible but strong batting unit and a very balanced bowling unit. In batting, Ahmed Sehzad and Mohd Hafeez at number one & two, Kamran Akmal at number three, Younis Khan at number four, Misbah at number five, Umar Akmal at number six, Shahid Afridi at number seven and Abdul Razzaq at number eight do make their batting look super-strong. In the bowling department, a mellowed-down but controlled Shoaib Akhtar still packs a punch as a fast bowler, and is well supported by Umer Gul and Wahab Riaz. With Shahid Afridi himself breathing fire with the ball, this team has the ability to defeat any opposition on its day.

The only reason why they are outside my top three list is because of their unpredictable nature, which yet again resurfaced & made them fumble against as weak an opposition as Canada, before Afridi rescued them with the ball.

England doesn’t feature in my list for obvious reasons and South Africa, in my opinion don’t have the ability to win three knock-out matches in a row, against three good oppositions, which severely dilutes their chance winning the tournament. This is the very reason why the Proteas have been unsuccessful, despite of looking really strong, in each of their previous attempts.

That sums up my list of probable winners of world cup 2011. But funnier things have happened in cricket, and who knows, a surprise might just be round the corner.