Think Dhoni, think!!!

India’s expected victory against Netherlands has sealed their quarterfinal berth in the twenty eleven edition of the World Cup, but bowling still remains a sore area for them. They have been struggling in this department right from the word go. A weaker team like Bangladesh managed to score 283 against them, while England almost chased down a huge total of 338. Ireland threatened to go big with a 100-plus run third wicket partnership and it took a special effort from part timer Yuvraj Singh to restrict them to 209 with a five wicket haul. Against Netherland, their front line spinner Harbhajan Singh yet again went wicket-less, while Dhoni’s blue-eyed boy Piyush Chawla continued to prove more than a generous host to yet another associated nation.



It’s hard to decipher Chawla’s inclusion ahead of Ashwin, even when Dhoni says that he needs more practice, for I can’t see him taking any further part in the crunch games ahead with his current showing in the three matches that he has played. Dhoni is bang on when he says Chawla’s confidence is down, in fact that would be a gross understatement. His confidence and form has hit rock-bottom, almost to a point of no-return, at least in the near future. At this moment, nameless batsmen from the weakest of sides are looking like Viv Richards in front of him, and it would not take a rocket scientist to figure it out that his rightful place is nowhere else but the bench.

Backing a less than capable player has been the Dhoni’s hallmark for quite a while now. Remember Ravindra Jadeja? He formed part of Dhoni’s scheme of things for more than a year ahead of Yusuf Pathan, and it took a spectacular series of domestic performances on Pathan’s part and international non-performances on Jadeja’s part to save India the misery. In Chawla’s case Dhoni doesn’t have the luxury of time, as we are barely five matches away from the cup, if at all we get there. And if we really intend to get there, Ashwin has to be in. We can’t penalize a deserving bowler (Ashwin) for not bowling leg-spin, and reward an undeserving bowler (Piyush) who is going to feed international batsmen with club bowling-stuffs match after match. Dhoni has to put his thinking cap on, and get it right pretty quickly. We had discussed about his dilemma in a different post, but he stumped us all with an entirely different approach!

I wouldn’t read too much into their batting effort in this five wicket victory though. As explained by Dhoni, it was just an experiment, not only in batting order, but also in style. It did look like they were trying to go after the bowlers to hone their fluency, always aware of the fact that they had the depth to pull the shutters down and cruise to victory in a more traditional manner in case a few quick wickets went down in their quest to oil their big hitting machineries.

Yuvraj Singh helped himself with yet another half century, his third in this tournament and second without getting out while chasing. This augurs well for India. His confidence is on the ascent, and it’s evident in his body language. Make no mistake, he is far from the old match winner India had, at best, you could say he is just about sixty percent of his abilities. But what is heartening is, Yuvi is willing to take responsibility out there in the middle. He is still struggling to get right behind the line, to pick gaps in the effortless manner he used to do, to time the ball as gracefully he is capable of, but all that will come back. As the experts say, the best way to get back there is to spend time in the middle. Seems like he is putting his best efforts there, and the results are bound to flow sooner than later.

We have two more important matches coming up in the group stages, and we would do well to use them to get our bowling attack right before the knock out stage comes up.

A re-evaluation of my world cup favorites

Even though it has come a bit late in the day, I guess it would still be relevant to evaluate my list of teams that I had thought were favorites to lift the twenty-eleven edition of the world cup, even before the first ball of the tournament was bowled. And since by now, we are already two weeks into the mega-event, we do have an opportunity to examine the validity of my initial predictions against some actual performances of the teams featured in the list.

Out of the ten teams that are participating, I had picked three teams in order of their strength, and added another as a dark horse on the basis of its sheer talent at the fourth position. Here are my initial choices, the reason behind, the till date performance and the revised ranking if any:



The Favorite

1. India: This home team was my clear favorite to lift the trophy, primarily due to the batting heavy weights it boasts of in its lineup. Any team which opens with the best ODI batsman of all times (Sachin Tendulkar) and the most destructive batter of his era (Virender Sehwag), follows them up with two top ten ICC ranked batsmen (Gautam Gambhir and Virat Kohli), then back them up again with two hardest strikers and match winners (Yuvraj Singh & Mahendra Dhoni) and is still left with a fearsome hitter of the cricket ball to come in next (Yusuf Pathan) has to be up there as the team to beat. The fact that all the above guys are in excellent form barring Yuvraj (even Yuvi has shown some early signs of getting back into touch), presents a strong case in their favor. They also have a crafty seam bowler in Zaheer Khan, an experienced off spinner in Harbhajan and some very useful part timers who can do the job in the sub-continent conditions. Hence despite the fact that they lost a recent series in South Africa, I thought, they had to be the favorites here under more familiar placid home tracks.

By now, they have played two matches, and having won one and tied one have already accumulated three points. With two relatively easier games in hand against Netherland and Ireland, their quarterfinal berth should be a near certainty. The only worrying factor is that their bowlers have looked clueless in both the matches so far. While Bangladesh managed to score more than 280 against them, England threatened to hand them with their first defeat in the cup as they weren’t able to defend a mammoth total of 339 in Bangalore. They have to do some serious re-thinking there before any further damage is done.

Hence, in my ranking system, even though they still appear there as the number one favorite, which is again due to their batting prowess and knowledge of the conditions, there is certainly some amount of doubt that has crept in at this point. What if on a knock out match, the batsmen don’t manage to score 300 plus? Still I am willing to give them the benefit of doubt at this stage.



The Lions

2. Srilanka: They are always a force to reckon with, in the slow and low sub-continent tracks and hence despite the fact that they have a relatively weaker middle order, I had ranked them as the second most likely side to lift the cup. To support my reasoning, I have to point out at a decent opening pair in Dilshan and Tharanga, followed by the classy duo of Mahela and Sangakkara and then a smart choice in Samaraweera at number five to lend some stability in the middle order. With the versatile Angelo Mathews and the hard hitting Tisara Perera to follow, they seem to have one of the most balanced sides in the tournament. In Malinga, they have a dangerous wicket taking fast bowler and in Muralidharan, they have that world cup winning experience, who could guide spinners like Herath and Mendis when the situation so demands. How I wish they had picked Jayasuria at least in their 16 member squad, in place of Chamara Silva or Kapugedara! A slightly out of form forty-odd year old Jayasuria is still ten times better than either of the above. The Lankan selectors may have missed a trick here.

Notwithstanding that, and their loss to Pakistan in their group match, the Lions are still my choice as the second most favorite even now. They have already secured five points and with two games against the Kiwis and Zimbabwe, they would probably back themselves to qualify for the quarter finals as one of the top two teams from their group. 

The defending champions

3. Australia: The Aussies, despite of their humiliating ashes defeat, have quickly bounced back with a six-one home series win against their traditional nemesis England and looked quite formidable ever since. The addition of the pace duo, Brett Lee and Shaun Tait, has added that extra spark to their bowling attack, and despite of missing Mike Hussey in the middle order, they are looking every bit the defending champions, if only marginally subdued. They have an invaluable player in Shane Watson, who coming at the top of the order, not only destroys bowling attacks, but also is adept at sneaking away those important wickets as an extremely handy seam bowler. While Mitch Johnson, as a first change bowler, doesn’t provide any respite for the opposition, Jason Krejza & Steve Smith look to form their other attacking option. Alongside the above six specialists, the world champions also have the option of bowling White, Clarke and David Hussey, and that undoubtedly ranks as the best bowling unit of the tournament.

Here again, my evaluation doesn’t change, and I still go with them as my third favorite to win the cup. I hear that they are in the process of getting a replacement for Doug Bollinger, and if they manage to get Mike Hussey, then, in all probability, I would place them ahead of the Lions as my second favorite beyond any doubt.



The unpredictables

4. Pakistan: Having selected my top three favorites to go all the way, I have the supremely talented but extremely unpredictable Pakistan team as my dark horse to lift the trophy. Coming into the tournament, they look a very flexible but strong batting unit and a very balanced bowling unit. In batting, Ahmed Sehzad and Mohd Hafeez at number one & two, Kamran Akmal at number three, Younis Khan at number four, Misbah at number five, Umar Akmal at number six, Shahid Afridi at number seven and Abdul Razzaq at number eight do make their batting look super-strong. In the bowling department, a mellowed-down but controlled Shoaib Akhtar still packs a punch as a fast bowler, and is well supported by Umer Gul and Wahab Riaz. With Shahid Afridi himself breathing fire with the ball, this team has the ability to defeat any opposition on its day.

The only reason why they are outside my top three list is because of their unpredictable nature, which yet again resurfaced & made them fumble against as weak an opposition as Canada, before Afridi rescued them with the ball.

England doesn’t feature in my list for obvious reasons and South Africa, in my opinion don’t have the ability to win three knock-out matches in a row, against three good oppositions, which severely dilutes their chance winning the tournament. This is the very reason why the Proteas have been unsuccessful, despite of looking really strong, in each of their previous attempts.

That sums up my list of probable winners of world cup 2011. But funnier things have happened in cricket, and who knows, a surprise might just be round the corner.

O Brien's Glory, England's Misery

The unlikely hero

Kevin O’Brien’s sparkling innings against England would certainly be up there as one of the best ODI knocks ever seen, for the simple reason that it turned an almost lost match on its head and helped his team achieve the unachievable. Even otherwise, you don’t get to see too many fifty ball-hundreds every other day! At this moment, the impact of this superlative effort is yet to be known in its entirety, but certainly it has the ability to cause some serious headache for England so far as the world cup quarter final lineup is concerned. Not that it would automatically put England out of the race straightaway, but it has rendered all the forthcoming matches for England that much more important.

From here on, England is scheduled to play South Africa, Bangladesh and West Indies, and none of these matches are going to be easy for them. Adjusting against Bangladesh’s slow ball bowlers is going to be as much a challenge as negotiating the quick bowlers like Steyn & Morkel. West Indies too, is running into some serious form and could multiply England’s problems. If England does lose to South Africa, the next two matches would turn out to be knock-out encounters for them. And because they have had a forgettable campaign till now, it only adds to the pressure.

Catching-up time

They have come into this tournament on back of a six-one loss against the Aussies, and done nothing here to get their confidence back. They have somehow managed to scrape through against Netherland, tied a match against India and then lost to Ireland. With two of the relative easier matches out of their way, they have to quickly regroup, if they want to travel any further in this edition of the world cup.

South Africa and the West Indies are sitting pretty with two wins each. Since both these teams are due to play against Ireland, you could safely assume that they would comfortably book their quarter-final berths. India too are playing against Ireland, and that should provide them a chance to secure two more points, and hence a claim on the third QF spot. It would be too much to expect O’Brien to repeat his heroics yet again against any of these sides.

So, in my opinion, only the fourth quarter final spot in Group B is logically up for the grabs and England has to race against Ireland and Bangladesh to secure that.

But then Destiny and O’Brien might have other ideas.

Dhoni’ Dilemma

A lot to ponder over

Mahendra Singh Dhoni has a lot to think about before India takes field against South Africa on 12th March 2011 at Nagpur. He has got this unenviable task of settling the demons of his side’s hapless bowling performance against England. Unfortunately, the games against Ireland and Netherland are not going to help him much in finding the right answer, for, theoretically, India could win those matches with its batting strength alone.

But it’s going to be a different matter all together against stronger opponents, during more important matches. If we are unable to defend 339 runs against a team who notwithstanding its Ashes form, is not considered the best of sides in the limited overs format, how are we going to do so against top ranked sides in the later stage of this tournament?

Now, Dhoni has always preferred to go with four specialist bowlers, which he seems to have inherited from the age-old Indian practice that has been prevalent since time immemorial. This is primarily because India never had that elusive all rounder at their disposal since Kapil Dev’s retirement. Occasionally we have had guys like Irfan Pathan, who rather than providing a long-term solution, have flattered to deceive after some amount of early promise. And because we have had to deal with quite a few batting collapses intermittently, we have not been too inclined towards including a specialist bowler in place of a batsman. As a result, we have had to be satisfied with, batsmen who could turn their arm over to fill in the fifth bowler’s slot. And that has worked for us most of the times. But the question to be asked is, how long? It could well be a blessing in disguise that the tied match against England has posed that question right at the outset.

Let us try to answer that for Dhoni:

Option 1: Stick to the same combination, try Ashwin or Nehra in place of Piyush

Experience could prove handy

Now, if Dhoni goes for this option, which looks more likely at this moment, his reasoning could be this - it’s too early to change a long successful strategy only after a single reversal. We must also be mindful of the fact that our field placing was woeful during that match. We were only following the ball rather than being proactive. If we can tie that loose end up, this four-bowlers-three-part-timer-strategy might look formidable yet again. The upside of sticking to this combination is that we are that extra bit protected against the ever round the corner batting collapse, and we would also be able to maintain the on paper mighty look of our lineup. The downside is that, if one specialist bowler has an off day, It becomes that much more difficult for the part-timers to fill in those extra overs. This weakness could be exploited by better oppositions, as we saw in the match against England.

In my opinion, even if we go with this combination, we have to have three pace bowlers and only one spinner, since all our part timers are spin bowlers. In a spinning track, even Yuvraj or Pathan could be as effective as anybody. And in matches like the one we tied, it would be always harder to hit a pace bowler out of the park for sixes in the closing overs. Had there been a seamer to bowl that penultimate over in place of Piyush Chawla, we still could have ended up in the winning side.

Option 2: Play an additional bowler in place of a batsman

Yuvi could be dropped

If Dhoni finally plans to get the balance right by going for this option, a further confusion awaits him here. Who does he drop? Virat Kohli could be a natural choice. But as rightly pointed out by Rajiv during a recent conversation, if there comes a bad batting day, only guys like Gambhir and Kohli are more likely to bail you out of that, not our Yuvraj or Pathan. If today the line up looks strong, it’s because the former two are in red hot form, and hence it would be a mistake to leave Kohli out. Now dropping Pathan would not be advisable because he is a game changer, who could turn a few matches around for you, all by himself, not to forget his bowling. And the fact that he is in some serious form, can’t be ignored. That leaves us with Yuvraj, who is still struggling with the bat, and you would most definitely not pick him for his bowling alone. The matter further worsens when you do decide to drop Yuvraj, because, yes, you preferred Pathan over Yuvi due to the reason mentioned above, but how about Raina? Could you include him in place of Pathan? Would that be better, as he is more reliable than Pathan and is in better form compared to Yuvraj? Perhaps yes. That would give a completely newish look Indian one-day side, which despite of being logical, I am not very comfortable with. Forget about me, it doesn’t matter, but would Dhoni be comfortable? I doubt.

We will have to wait and watch.

Ashes 2010-11 and World Test Cricket

Sweet taste of victory

With a convincing victory in the Ashes over Australia in Australia’s own backyard, England has established itself as a serious contender for the No.1 spot in test arena. England’s coach Andy Flower too has echoed this view, “It’s realistic, and it’s achievable.” Not many would disagree with that. England team has been on the ascent for quite some time now. Right after Andrew Strauss had taken over from Kevin Pieterson, they have gone from strength to strength. With the most balanced test side in world cricket at this moment, they indeed looked too hot to handle for the Aussies right from the word go during the Ashes. In the end the result of 3-1 all but confirmed their dominance. Clearly the better side had stamped its authority over the other.

Perfect Farewell

England’s awesome batting line up, superbly penetrating bowling line up and brilliant fielding unit, both close-in and otherwise, ensures that they start as favorites almost against any side in the world at this moment. Even Paul Collingwood’s retirement has come as a blessing in disguise to this immensely talented side as that was the only position which would be up for discussion at any selection committee meeting. With Eion Morgan breathing down his neck, Collingwood was under serious pressure all the time and it reflected in his recent performances. With him retired for good, in my opinion, Ian bell should move to the number three position (Bell batted at number six in the Ashes, he is too good a player to bat that low down the order) after Strauss and Cook, followed by KP at his customary number four and Trott at number five. Eion Morgan should take up the crucial number six position to make it one of the most formidable batting line up in the world. At seven Mathew Prior would provide the desired impetus, where as Tim Bresnan or Steward Broad would bat at number eight. Number nine is taken by Swann beyond doubt and would have to be followed by James Anderson and Cris Tremlet. Looking at the team, one would feel that such a combination comes once in a life time, as the experts opine, “This is the most settled side in world cricket.” And no, I am not getting carried away by their Ashes triumph alone; I am never bothered by results. I was impressed by how this team went ahead with the task in their hand. They played aggressive cricket right through the series, with a lot of self belief and showed everybody that they are indeed a force to reckon with as far as the test top ranking is concerned. 

The faces say it all 

On the other hand, Australia are reeling at number five in the ICC ranking at present and I truly believe that they are placed at their rightful place. They don’t accept it, as Mike Hussey said a few days back after losing the test series to India, “I don’t think we are the number five side in the world, obviously there is something wrong in the ranking system.”

Well, I agree with him for the second part, that the current ranking system is not the most perfect as it gets, but certainly, it has got it right by ranking Australia at number five. The reason being, England, India and South Africa beyond doubt and Srilanka probably by the skin of their teeth would deserve to be placed ahead of the fast sliding Aussies. Shane Warne was bang on when he urged them to accept that they are indeed at the fifth position, because only by doing that would they strive to improve.

Time for serious introspection

Indeed, Australia has to shed their arrogance in a hurry. Ricky Ponting, if he wants to play for a couple more years, has to let go of the captaincy and concentrate on his game alone. And they just can’t play Steven Smith at number six; he is just not good enough for that position. He can’t be played as a batting all-rounder. They need some drastic changes, may be a near complete revamp. I don’t follow their domestic cricket that much, so can’t really comment on who should be brought in, but all I can say is that the current bunch of players are victims of so much negativity at this moment that they simply don’t seem to be able to move forward. They have been losing almost every match they are playing and that’s certainly not a great feeling.

All said and done, the Ashes, in my opinion, has put things in perspective for two of the top five sides in world cricket. While it has helped the cricket world to sit up and take notice of England as one of the best three sides (even you could call it one of the best two- we would discuss that in a different post) in the world in terms of ability and not ranking, if also has confirmed the Aussies to be at the bottom of the top five.